Buffalo at Miami OH — Atlas projection and grade

Buffalo

Mid-American · 5-3

Miami OH

Mid-American · 5-3

Tue 3 Nov · 8:00 PM ET · ESPN · Yager Stadium

Rest BUFF 10 days, M-OH 10 days · Travel BUFF 392 mi

Market

not posted

total —

Atlas projectsAtlas

22.6–26.1

BUFF–M-OH · total 48.7

Difference

—

on the spread · total —

–

Not graded

No market is posted yet, so there is nothing to grade Atlas's number against.

A grade is how much weight a card's information deserves — not a recommendation.

Why

what the model is reading

Pace and possessions 116 plays · 74th percentile
Home advantage M-OH +2.6 pts
Offensive efficiency M-OH +0.15 EPA/play

Be careful about

One book is quoting this game, so the market number has no depth behind it and may move sharply.

Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status

New to Atlas? What a card is, and what a grade means

Market detail where the line opened, where it is now, and the prices

No spread posted.

Neither number has moved since it opened.

No total posted.

Moneyline not posted No book prices a moneyline on this game. Atlas leaves the field empty rather than deriving one from the spread.

no market posted

Projection detail the projected score, the chance of winning, the total's range and the most likely exact score

Projected score

22.6 – 26.1

Buffalo – Miami OH

Projected spread

M-OH −3.5

market —

Projected total

48.7

market — · 80% range 28–69

Miami OH win probability

59.8%

from the score grid

Under probability

—

at the current total of —

Most likely score

21–24

1.0% of the grid — one cell of 6,400

How this number is made. Every FBS team starts the season at a preseason expectation built from last season's ratings, roster talent, recruiting, returning production and the coaching situation. After every game a filter updates each team's offense and defense, opponent-adjusted, and the two teams' numbers meet here with the home advantage. The total adds the teams' pace and the wind. The market is never an input; it is shown so you can see where Atlas differs and read why.

Matchup how each offense compares with the defense it faces, season to date, ranked among 138 FBS teams

Season to date through 24 October: Buffalo 8 games, Miami OH 8 games. Ranks are among 138 FBS teams, 1st the best; the crest marks which side ranks better on each line.

Buffalo offensevs Miami OH defense

22.6107th

Points per game

edge Miami OH

25.887th

4.68137th

Yards per play

edge Miami OH

5.9489th

181.547th

Rushing yards per game

edge Miami OH

100.015th

159.1130th

Passing yards per game

275.6130th

3.2125th

20+ yard plays per game

edge Miami OH

4.484th

2.4105th

Sacks per game

edge Miami OH

2.067th

40%87th

Third-down conversion rate

edge Buffalo

43%108th

48%114th

Red-zone touchdown rate

edge Buffalo

68%120th

Miami OH offensevs Buffalo defense

27.080th

Points per game

edge Miami OH

25.483rd

6.5133rd

Yards per play

edge Miami OH

5.8985th

150.181st

Rushing yards per game

edge Miami OH

151.687th

225.882nd

Passing yards per game

edge Miami OH

234.897th

5.624th

20+ yard plays per game

edge Miami OH

4.064th

2.5113th

Sacks per game

edge Buffalo

1.5105th

37%100th

Third-down conversion rate

edge Buffalo

36%43rd

55%95th

Red-zone touchdown rate

edge Buffalo

61%92nd

Buffalovs Miami OH

Situational

−0.50109th

Turnover margin per game

edge Miami OH

+0.2558th

72.88th most

Plays per game

57.8135th most

Figures come from completed games only, so every one was known before kickoff. They are raw, not adjusted for opponents - All drivers has Atlas's adjusted view. College counts sack yardage as rushing, as the NCAA does.

Other models what FPI, SP+ and Elo say about this game, beside Atlas and the market

Model	Margin	Win	As of
FPI (ESPN)	M-OH by 5.8	66%	Oct 28
SP+	M-OH by 10.3	—	Oct 29
Elo	BUFF by 1.8	—	Oct 29
Atlas	M-OH by 3.5	60%	live

Each model's number for this game as its source published it before kickoff; Win is the favored side's chance to win, where the model gives one. FPI's margin and chance are ESPN's own. SP+ is the difference in the two teams' ratings, plus 2.5 for a home side; Elo is the difference in ratings at 24 points a point, plus 2.6 for a home side, as Atlas measured it on past seasons. None of these is an input to Atlas's number, and none is here to settle anything: they show where Atlas sits among other models.

How this grade was computed the four things that set the letter, out of a hundred

All drivers all 4 things the model is reading, and how each team ranks against the rest of the country

Pace and possessions 116 plays · 74th percentile

A combined 116 plays per game — the 74th percentile of this season's games. A fast game, which lifts the projected total.

fewer playsmore plays

Home advantage M-OH +2.6 pts

Playing at home is worth 2.6 points in this season's model, fitted, not assumed.

BuffaloMiami OH

Offensive efficiency M-OH +0.15 EPA/play

Miami OH's offense sits in the 36th percentile of FBS on opponent-adjusted EPA; Buffalo's is 3rd percentile.

BuffaloMiami OH

Offense, in points M-OH +1.3 pts

Atlas rates Miami OH's offense at -5.6 points a game against FBS average and Buffalo's at -6.9, opponent-adjusted, after 7 games this season.

BuffaloMiami OH

Market movement how far the market has moved since the number opened, and which way

Reliability record what Atlas claimed and what it delivered, across the seasons it never saw while being built

What this card is. Research, analytics and market context. Atlas does not publish selections, does not size anything and does not project returns. Every figure is computed out of sample from a point-in-time database: nothing attached to a game uses information that did not exist before kickoff.