Model record
Every projection, graded against the final scoreCollege football
291 games graded. Atlas's projected margin was 12.1 points from the final one on average, its total 13.3; the side it had ahead won 69% of 291 games.
On the 226 games with a captured market margin, Atlas's margin was 12.4 points from the final one on average and the market's 11.8; Atlas's was the closer of the two in 105 of 225 games where they differed. On the 226 with a captured market total, Atlas's total missed by 13.1 and the market's by 12.6.
By grade
Each card's grade as last published before kickoff: Atlas's claimed probability on the spread against how often it happened. It began on 26 September 2026; nothing earlier was kept. A letter with few cards is noise, not a reading.
| Grade | Cards | Claimed | Realized | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A+ | 10 few | 50.6% | 40.0% | −10.6 |
| A | 14 few | 52.1% | 64.3% | +12.1 |
| B | 90 | 53.8% | 60.0% | +6.2 |
| C | 75 | 58.9% | 53.3% | −5.6 |
| D | 24 few | 65.3% | 29.2% | −36.1 |
| F | 7 few | 76.7% | 35.7% | −41.0 |
| All | 220 | 57.3% | 53.0% | −4.3 |
By week
Misses are margin · total, in points, averaged over the week.
| Week | Atlas miss | Winner | Market miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 9 4 games | 18.4 · 19.4 | 50% | 16.9 · 18.5 |
| Wk 8 56 games | 11.3 · 14.9 | 59% | 10.5 · 14.3 |
| Wk 7 59 games | 11.0 · 13.7 | 69% | — |
| Wk 6 58 games | 12.1 · 13.1 | 64% | 11.6 · 12.4 |
| Wk 5 56 games | 13.3 · 13.2 | 75% | 13.2 · 12.9 |
| Wk 4 58 games | 12.5 · 11.1 | 78% | 11.4 · 10.6 |
Game by game
The latest 40 of 291; every one is in the download below. Scores are away–home; misses are margin · total, in points.
| Game | Atlas miss | Market miss |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State projected 27.6–25.0 · final 24–0 | 21.4 · 28.5 | 21.0 · 26.5 |
| Kennesaw State @ Middle Tennessee projected 23.8–26.3 · final 44–28 | 18.5 · 21.9 | 14.5 · 22.5 |
| Sam Houston @ Missouri State projected 24.2–28.9 · final 3–24 | 16.4 · 26.1 | 15.5 · 24.5 |
| Delaware @ Western Kentucky projected 27.0–30.0 · final 35–21 | 17.1 · 1.0 | 16.5 · 0.5 |
| Houston @ Utah projected 23.3–30.5 · final 13–21 | 0.8 · 19.7 | 1.5 · 23.5 |
| North Dakota State @ New Mexico projected 18.7–25.2 · final 16–21 | 1.5 · 6.9 | 0.5 · 2.5 |
| UTSA @ Tulane projected 24.7–25.9 · final 42–19 | 24.2 · 10.4 | 20.0 · 8.5 |
| Vanderbilt @ Kentucky projected 20.7–33.2 · final 17–34 | 4.5 · 2.9 | 7.0 · 0.5 |
| Ole Miss @ Texas projected 24.9–30.0 · final 27–34 | 1.9 · 6.1 | 4.0 · 5.5 |
| Iowa State @ Arizona projected 21.0–28.9 · final 3–39 | 28.1 · 7.8 | 23.5 · 9.5 |
| Syracuse @ North Carolina projected 20.1–31.0 · final 31–30 | 12.0 · 9.9 | 9.5 · 11.5 |
| USC @ Wisconsin projected 25.8–24.7 · final 7–24 | 18.1 · 19.5 | 19.5 · 20.5 |
| Utah State @ Texas State projected 24.8–30.6 · final 17–20 | 2.9 · 18.4 | 11.5 · 22.5 |
| Colorado @ Oklahoma State projected 20.4–30.7 · final 24–57 | 22.7 · 29.9 | 19.5 · 25.5 |
| Virginia Tech @ Clemson projected 23.6–27.7 · final 20–16 | 8.1 · 15.3 | 7.0 · 13.5 |
| Georgia State @ Arkansas State projected 27.5–28.1 · final 32–38 | 5.4 · 14.4 | 8.5 · 11.5 |
| San Diego State @ Colorado State projected 31.8–27.9 · final 49–56 | 11.0 · 45.3 | 5.5 · 47.5 |
| Boise State @ Washington State projected 31.4–19.9 · final 31–10 | 9.5 · 10.3 | 6.5 · 11.5 |
| San José State @ Nevada projected 22.4–27.8 · final 13–28 | 9.6 · 9.2 | 9.5 · 4.5 |
| Louisiana @ Southern Miss projected 33.0–22.3 · final 31–35 | 14.7 · 10.7 | 15.5 · 13.5 |
| Old Dominion @ Louisiana Tech projected 19.9–29.0 · final 0–26 | 16.8 · 22.9 | 12.5 · 17.5 |
| Eastern Michigan @ Ohio projected 18.6–32.6 · final 20–24 | 10.0 · 7.2 | 7.5 · 4.5 |
| UL Monroe @ Troy projected 17.3–34.6 · final 21–14 | 24.2 · 16.9 | 20.5 · 15.5 |
| Kansas State @ Arizona State projected 29.6–24.6 · final 17–28 | 16.0 · 9.2 | 12.5 · 6.5 |
| Texas A&M @ Alabama projected 19.8–31.4 · final 20–31 | 0.6 · 0.3 | 2.5 · 1.5 |
| Oklahoma @ Mississippi State projected 26.6–25.4 · final 23–15 | 6.8 · 13.9 | 6.5 · 11.5 |
| Tennessee @ South Carolina projected 27.8–26.0 · final 24–27 | 4.8 · 2.7 | 0.5 · 0.5 |
| BYU @ UCF projected 27.9–18.4 · final 31–39 | 17.5 · 23.8 | 15.5 · 26.5 |
| Boston College @ Georgia Tech projected 22.6–27.5 · final 49–27 | 26.9 · 25.9 | 28.5 · 25.5 |
| Iowa @ Minnesota projected 26.1–18.2 · final 10–13 | 11.0 · 21.3 | 10.5 · 17.5 |
| Michigan State @ UCLA projected 16.3–31.8 · final 10–28 | 2.5 · 10.1 | 1.5 · 5.5 |
| North Texas @ Navy projected 30.9–26.2 · final 49–39 | 5.2 · 30.9 | 7.0 · 27.5 |
| Hawai'i @ Northern Illinois projected 24.8–21.4 · final 56–21 | 31.6 · 30.7 | 32.0 · 28.5 |
| Sacramento State @ Ball State projected 22.9–30.0 · final 17–34 | 9.9 · 1.9 | 2.5 · 0.5 |
| Bowling Green @ Buffalo projected 20.4–27.8 · final 24–31 | 0.4 · 6.8 | 4.0 · 10.5 |
| Oregon @ Illinois projected 31.9–21.2 · final 10–21 | 21.7 · 22.0 | 21.5 · 17.5 |
| Baylor @ Kansas projected 28.5–26.9 · final 24–25 | 2.6 · 6.4 | 0.5 · 5.5 |
| Akron @ Kent State projected 23.3–25.0 · final 20–35 | 13.4 · 6.7 | 12.0 · 6.5 |
| Miami (OH) @ Central Michigan projected 20.9–23.9 · final 28–27 | 4.0 · 10.1 | 2.5 · 14.5 |
| LSU @ Auburn projected 27.7–21.0 · final 38–17 | 14.3 · 6.4 | 14.0 · 2.5 |
NFL
14 games graded. Atlas's projected margin was 10.7 points from the final one on average, its total 10.6; the side it had ahead won 71% of 14 games.
On the 14 games with a captured market margin, Atlas's margin was 10.7 points from the final one on average and the market's 10.1; Atlas's was the closer of the two in 5 of 14 games where they differed. On the 14 with a captured market total, Atlas's total missed by 10.6 and the market's by 10.4.
By grade
Each card's grade as last published before kickoff: Atlas's claimed probability on the spread against how often it happened. It began on 26 September 2026; nothing earlier was kept. A letter with few cards is noise, not a reading.
| Grade | Cards | Claimed | Realized | Gap, pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A+ | 2 few | 50.6% | 100.0% | +49.4 |
| A | 1 few | 52.0% | 0.0% | −52.0 |
| B | 8 few | 52.3% | 37.5% | −14.8 |
| C | 3 few | 57.6% | 0.0% | −57.6 |
| D | 0 | — | — | — |
| F | 0 | — | — | — |
| All | 14 | 53.2% | 35.7% | −17.5 |
By week
Misses are margin · total, in points, averaged over the week.
| Week | Atlas miss | Winner | Market miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 14 games | 10.7 · 10.6 | 71% | 10.1 · 10.4 |
Game by game
Every graded game. Scores are away–home; misses are margin · total, in points.
| Game | Atlas miss | Market miss |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Eagles projected 23.3–21.1 · final 38–21 | 14.8 · 14.7 | 12.5 · 15.5 |
| Chiefs @ Seahawks projected 21.1–24.3 · final 3–20 | 13.8 · 22.5 | 14.0 · 20.5 |
| Packers @ Lions projected 24.0–28.0 · final 17–20 | 1.0 · 15.0 | 0.5 · 18.5 |
| Rams @ Raiders projected 27.1–23.9 · final 35–21 | 10.8 · 5.1 | 10.5 · 6.5 |
| Broncos @ Cardinals projected 24.5–19.8 · final 30–16 | 9.3 · 1.8 | 9.5 · 1.5 |
| Bengals @ Ravens projected 24.3–22.7 · final 35–13 | 20.4 · 1.0 | 19.0 · 1.5 |
| Browns @ Titans projected 20.9–18.1 · final 27–24 | 0.2 · 12.0 | 1.5 · 14.5 |
| Colts @ Vikings projected 19.6–26.9 · final 10–16 | 1.3 · 20.5 | 0.5 · 15.5 |
| Dolphins @ Jets projected 18.9–22.3 · final 28–25 | 6.3 · 11.8 | 6.5 · 13.5 |
| Giants @ Texans projected 17.5–26.2 · final 27–21 | 14.7 · 4.3 | 16.0 · 5.5 |
| 49ers @ Falcons projected 26.8–22.0 · final 20–29 | 13.9 · 0.2 | 11.5 · 0.5 |
| Buccaneers @ Panthers projected 21.2–24.6 · final 43–13 | 33.4 · 10.3 | 33.0 · 11.5 |
| Steelers @ Saints projected 24.4–22.0 · final 16–10 | 3.7 · 20.4 | 3.0 · 17.5 |
| Patriots @ Bears projected 22.5–22.6 · final 24–30 | 5.9 · 8.9 | 3.0 · 3.5 |
How the record is kept
Before kickoff, and only then. A projection counts only if it was made before its game kicked off. Each refresh records a new projection for every game still to be played; a change to the model adds a new row rather than replacing one, and a game in progress is never projected again. A game whose only projection was made after kickoff is left out, not graded.
The miss. How far the projected margin (home points less away points) and the projected total were from the final ones, in points. Winner is how often the side Atlas had ahead won; a projected or final tie is not counted.
The grades. Each card's grade is kept as it was last published before kickoff, with the spread it was graded against. Claimed is Atlas's own probability, on that card, that the final margin would land on its side of that spread; realized is how often it did, a push counting half; the gap is realized less claimed. The grade's claim is that higher letters carry smaller gaps: an A card's probability should sit nearer what happens than a D card's. It is a calibration record, the same measure as the seasons on Research, and not a count of results.
The market. DraftKings' last margin and total before kickoff, as Atlas captured them, graded the same way on the same games. A game with no captured line is graded for Atlas alone, and the comparison uses only the games that have both.
Before this season. How the models did on past seasons they never saw is on Research; this page is the live record only.