BBears at Seahawks
Market
SEA −3.0
Total
46.5
Atlas
46.3
Atlas projects
CHI 21.0
–SEA 25.3
Difference −0.2 on the total
SEA −3.0 · total 46.5 Atlas total 46.3
Details
NFL
Week of 29 October · 15 cards · 4 graded A or better · 1 marked downProjection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status
Every game gets a card — and a letter for how much that card's information has historically been worth. How to read one
Featured
the highest-rated teams on Atlas's modelB
DJaguars at Ravens
Market
BAL −3.0
Total
48.5
Atlas
47.7
Atlas projects
JAX 25.1
–BAL 22.6
Difference −0.8 on the total
BAL −3.0 · total 48.5 Atlas total 47.7
Details
CVikings at Lions
Market
DET −3.0
Total
46.5
Atlas
47.3
Atlas projects
MIN 23.5
–DET 23.8
Difference +0.8 on the total
DET −3.0 · total 46.5 Atlas total 47.3
Details
Next kickoffs
the next five games on the boardGB −3.5 · 46.5
PIT −3.5 · 39.5
DAL −7.0 · 54.5
JAX −10.0 · 46.5
TB −2.5 · 44.5
BPanthers at Packers
Market
GB −3.5
Total
46.5
Atlas
45.2
Atlas projects
CAR 20.4
–GB 24.9
Difference −1.3 on the total
GB −3.5 · total 46.5 Atlas total 45.2
Details
ABrowns at Steelers
Market
PIT −3.5
Total
39.5
Atlas
41.5
Atlas projects
CLE 19.1
–PIT 22.5
Difference +2.0 on the total
PIT −3.5 · total 39.5 Atlas total 41.5
Details
BCardinals at Cowboys
Market
DAL −7.0
Total
54.5
Atlas
50.4
Atlas projects
ARI 21.6
–DAL 28.8
Difference −4.1 on the total
DAL −7.0 · total 54.5 Atlas total 50.4
Details
BColts at Jaguars
Market
JAX −10.0
Total
46.5
Atlas
47.5
Atlas projects
IND 19.2
–JAX 28.3
Difference +1.0 on the total
JAX −10.0 · total 46.5 Atlas total 47.5
Details
AFalcons at Buccaneers
Market
TB −2.5
Total
44.5
Atlas
47.0
Atlas projects
ATL 22.3
–TB 24.7
Difference +2.5 on the total
TB −2.5 · total 44.5 Atlas total 47.0
Details
Graded A
4 cardsAtlas and the market are closely aligned. Reliable numbers — and the cards where Atlas is adding least.
NE −7.0 · 43.5
TB −2.5 · 44.5
BUF −3.0 · 54.5
PIT −3.5 · 39.5
APatriots at Dolphins
Market
NE −7.0
Total
43.5
Atlas
43.4
Atlas projects
NE 25.6
–MIA 17.8
Difference −0.1 on the total
NE −7.0 · total 43.5 Atlas total 43.4
Details
AFalcons at Buccaneers
Market
TB −2.5
Total
44.5
Atlas
47.0
Atlas projects
ATL 22.3
–TB 24.7
Difference +2.5 on the total
TB −2.5 · total 44.5 Atlas total 47.0
Details
ARavens at Bills
Market
BUF −3.0
Total
54.5
Atlas
52.3
Atlas projects
BAL 24.1
–BUF 28.1
Difference −2.2 on the total
BUF −3.0 · total 54.5 Atlas total 52.3
Details
ABrowns at Steelers
Market
PIT −3.5
Total
39.5
Atlas
41.5
Atlas projects
CLE 19.1
–PIT 22.5
Difference +2.0 on the total
PIT −3.5 · total 39.5 Atlas total 41.5
Details
Graded B
5 cardsA moderate disagreement, in the range where the model's claim and its realized accuracy stay close.
DAL −7.0 · 54.5
NYJ −1.5 · 45.5
JAX −10.0 · 46.5
GB −3.5 · 46.5
SEA −3.0 · 46.5
BCardinals at Cowboys
Market
DAL −7.0
Total
54.5
Atlas
50.4
Atlas projects
ARI 21.6
–DAL 28.8
Difference −4.1 on the total
DAL −7.0 · total 54.5 Atlas total 50.4
Details
BRaiders at Jets
Market
NYJ −1.5
Total
45.5
Atlas
46.9
Atlas projects
LV 23.7
–NYJ 23.1
Difference +1.4 on the total
NYJ −1.5 · total 45.5 Atlas total 46.9
Details
BColts at Jaguars
Market
JAX −10.0
Total
46.5
Atlas
47.5
Atlas projects
IND 19.2
–JAX 28.3
Difference +1.0 on the total
JAX −10.0 · total 46.5 Atlas total 47.5
Details
BPanthers at Packers
Market
GB −3.5
Total
46.5
Atlas
45.2
Atlas projects
CAR 20.4
–GB 24.9
Difference −1.3 on the total
GB −3.5 · total 46.5 Atlas total 45.2
Details
BBears at Seahawks
Market
SEA −3.0
Total
46.5
Atlas
46.3
Atlas projects
CHI 21.0
–SEA 25.3
Difference −0.2 on the total
SEA −3.0 · total 46.5 Atlas total 46.3
Details
Graded C
5 cardsA wide disagreement. The model's historical claim starts to run ahead of what it delivered.
KC −1.5 · 40.5
CIN −10.0 · 46.5
LAR −6.5 · 45.5
WSH −6.0 · 40.5
DET −3.0 · 46.5
CChiefs at Broncos
Market
KC −1.5
Total
40.5
Atlas
42.0
Atlas projects
KC 20.8
–DEN 21.2
Difference +1.5 on the total
KC −1.5 · total 40.5 Atlas total 42.0
Details
CTitans at Bengals
Market
CIN −10.0
Total
46.5
Atlas
46.2
Atlas projects
TEN 17.1
–CIN 29.1
Difference −0.3 on the total
CIN −10.0 · total 46.5 Atlas total 46.2
Details
CChargers at Rams
Market
LAR −6.5
Total
45.5
Atlas
45.9
Atlas projects
LAC 18.7
–LAR 27.3
Difference +0.4 on the total
LAR −6.5 · total 45.5 Atlas total 45.9
Details
CEagles at Commanders
Market
WSH −6.0
Total
40.5
Atlas
42.8
Atlas projects
PHI 19.6
–WSH 23.2
Difference +2.3 on the total
WSH −6.0 · total 40.5 Atlas total 42.8
Details
CVikings at Lions
Market
DET −3.0
Total
46.5
Atlas
47.3
Atlas projects
MIN 23.5
–DET 23.8
Difference +0.8 on the total
DET −3.0 · total 46.5 Atlas total 47.3
Details
Marked down
1 cardA large disagreement, in the range where Atlas has been least reliable across every season it never saw. Atlas marks these down itself.
BAL −3.0 · 48.5
DJaguars at Ravens
Market
BAL −3.0
Total
48.5
Atlas
47.7
Atlas projects
JAX 25.1
–BAL 22.6
Difference −0.8 on the total
BAL −3.0 · total 48.5 Atlas total 47.7
Details
Teams
Atlas's rating of each, and its season
How the NFL number is made. Every team's offense and defense are carried from
season to season, regressed toward the mean, and updated after every game by a filter that adjusts for the
opponent; a quarterback state travels with the player; the home advantage is fitted, not assumed; the total
adds the wind. The market is never an input. Measured out of sample on 2023-2025, the number is closer to the
final margin than Elo and not as close as the closing line, and the grade is built from that record. Atlas publishes research, analytics and market context; it does not publish selections,
does not size anything and does not project returns.