A wide disagreement of 5.5 points.
Across four seasons, cards this far from the market claimed 64% accuracy and delivered 48%. Atlas commonly struggles this far out.
How much weight this card's information deserves — not a recommendation.
Why
what the model is reading- Pace and possessions 113 plays · 44th percentile
-
Defense, in points
JAX +2.8 pts
-
Home advantage
BAL +1.2 pts
Be careful about
- One book is quoting this game, so the market number has no depth behind it and may move sharply.
Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status
New to Atlas? What a card is, and what a grade means
Market detail where the line opened, where it is now, and the prices
| Spread | Open | Current | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | −4.5 | −3.0 | −1.5 |
| Jaguars | +4.5 | +3.0 | +1.5 |
| Price | −110 | −105 | — |
The spread has moved 1.5 toward Jaguars and the total has moved 1.0 down since the open.
| Total | Open | Current | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game total | 49.5 | 48.5 | −1.0 |
| Price (over) | −110 | −110 | — |
DraftKings · 1 book quoting
Projection detail the projected score, the chance of winning, the total's range and the most likely exact score
Atlas difference
| Measure | Atlas model | Market | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | JAX −2.5 | BAL −3.0 | −5.5 |
| Total | 47.7 | 48.5 | −0.8 |
| Ravens win probability | 42.4% | 59.3% | −16.9 pts |
Matchup how each offense compares with the defense it faces, season to date, ranked among 32 NFL teams
Season to date through 26 October: Jaguars 6 games, Ravens 7 games. Ranks are among 32 NFL teams, 1st the best; the crest marks which side ranks better on each line.
edge Jaguarsedge Jaguarsedge Ravensedge Jaguarsedge Jaguarsedge Jaguarsedge Jaguarsedge Jaguarsedge Jaguarsedge Ravensedge Jaguarsedge Ravensedge Ravensedge Ravensedge Jaguarsedge JaguarsFigures come from completed games only, so every one was known before kickoff. They are raw, not adjusted for opponents - All drivers has Atlas's adjusted view. Passing yards are net of sack yardage, as the NFL counts them.
Other models what FPI, SP+ and Elo say about this game, beside Atlas and the market
| Model | Margin | Win | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| FPI (ESPN) | JAX by 0.5 | 53% | Oct 29 |
| Atlas | JAX by 2.5 | 58% | live |
| Market | BAL by 3.0 | — | live |
Each model's number for this game as its source published it before kickoff; Win is the favored side's chance to win, where the model gives one. FPI's margin and chance are ESPN's own. SP+ is the difference in the two teams' ratings, plus 2.5 for a home side; Elo is the difference in ratings at 24 points a point, plus 2.6 for a home side, as Atlas measured it on past seasons. None of these is an input to Atlas's number, and none is here to settle anything: they show where Atlas sits among other models.
How this grade was computed the four things that set the letter, out of a hundred
Low-reliability card
Atlas sits 5.5 points from the market. Cards in the 4-6 band claimed 64% accuracy and delivered 48% — read the drivers and the market context, and treat the projection as weak.
Atlas sits 5.5 points from the market. The calibration curve, fitted to every completed season out of sample, expects cards at that distance to fall 16.8% short of what they claim — which is where the calibration component above comes from.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened. Cards on a market that has moved have calibrated worse in five of six seasons.
The grade describes how much weight the information deserves. It says nothing about which side of a market anyone should take, and Atlas does not publish that. How grades are computed.
All drivers all 4 things the model is reading, and how each team ranks against the rest of the country
A combined 113 plays per game — the 44th percentile of this season's games. A middling number of possessions either way.
Atlas rates Jaguars' defense at +2.6 points a game against the NFL average and Ravens' at -0.2, opponent-adjusted, after 6 games this season.
Playing at home is worth 1.2 points in this season's model, fitted, not assumed.
Atlas rates Jaguars' offense, with its expected quarterback, at +3.6 points a game against the NFL average and Ravens' at +2.6, opponent-adjusted, after 6 games this season.
Market movement how far the market has moved since the number opened, and which way
Total, open to current
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Opening number | 49.5 |
| Current number | 48.5 |
| Market direction | down 1.0 |
| Atlas direction | down |
Atlas and the market have moved the same way on this total.
Two findings that are not in conflict
Atlas has measured disagreement twice, against two different reference points, and they say different things.
| Measured against | What it predicts |
|---|---|
| The closing number | the model's own failure — so a large difference lowers the grade |
| The opening number | which way the line moves — tracked publicly, not graded |
A model far from the close is wrong; a model far from the open is early. The second finding is tracked in the open closing-line record and is deliberately kept out of the grade.
Reliability record what Atlas claimed and what it delivered, across the seasons it never saw while being built
Calibration by disagreement band
Two series, labeled directly. The widening gap is why Atlas grades large disagreements down.
This band, four seasons
| Measure | This band | All cards |
|---|---|---|
| Realized accuracy | 48.1% | 50.1% |
| Claimed accuracy | 64.4% | 57.1% |
| Calibration gap | −16.3 pts | −7.0 pts |
| Seasons above 50% | 1 of 4 | — |
| Games measured | 187 | 1,800 |