Atlanta Falcons
NFL · 3-4
How Atlas rates them
points a game against an average NFL team · 15th of 28 with a card this weekExpected starter: M.Penix. +1.1 of that offense is his (± 1.9), and it travels with him: the model rates the quarterback and the team separately and adds them for the game. He is the depth chart's first quarterback unless the injury report lists him out.
The rating is the model's own, after 7 games this season: every team's offense and defense, and every quarterback, are carried from season to season and updated after each game, adjusted for the opponent. The ± is how unsure the model still is. These are the numbers the team's card uses.
Season profile
opponent-adjusted · percentile of the NFL this seasonEvery figure is point-in-time: it uses only games played before the team's next kickoff.
Upcoming
cards Atlas has published| Date | Opponent | Market | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov | at Buccaneers | TB −2.5 | 44.5 | A |
This season, before and after
Falcons' margin · what Atlas published before kickoff| Date | Opponent | Atlas margin | Closing margin | Final | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct | vs SF | −4.9 | −2.5 | +9 | Market |
| 18 Oct | vs Bears | −3.9 | −1.5 | −8 | Atlas |
| 11 Oct | vs Ravens | −4.0 | +3.5 | −7 | Atlas |
| 5 Oct | at NO | −2.1 | −1.5 | +21 | Market |
| 24 Sep | at Packers | −7.0 | −4.5 | +21 | Market |
Over 5 games, Atlas missed the final margin by 14.4 points on average and the closing line by 15.3. A handful of games says little about a model; the full record is on the Research page.
Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 5:24 AM ETData status