C Michigan at E Michigan — Atlas projection and grade

C Michigan

Mid-American · 3-5

E Michigan

Mid-American · 4-5

Wed 4 Nov · 7:30 PM ET · ESPN2 · Ford Field

Rest CMU 10 days, EMU 10 days

Market

not posted

total —

Atlas projectsAtlas

23.8–21.9

CMU–EMU · total 45.7

Difference

—

on the spread · total —

–

Not graded

No market is posted yet, so there is nothing to grade Atlas's number against.

A grade is how much weight a card's information deserves — not a recommendation.

Why

what the model is reading

Pace and possessions 104 plays · 29th percentile
Defense, in points CMU +2.5 pts
Pace and wind, on the total -1.8 pts

Be careful about

One book is quoting this game, so the market number has no depth behind it and may move sharply.

Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status

New to Atlas? What a card is, and what a grade means

Market detail where the line opened, where it is now, and the prices

No spread posted.

Neither number has moved since it opened.

No total posted.

Moneyline not posted No book prices a moneyline on this game. Atlas leaves the field empty rather than deriving one from the spread.

no market posted

Projection detail the projected score, the chance of winning, the total's range and the most likely exact score

Projected score

23.8 – 21.9

C Michigan – E Michigan

Projected spread

CMU −1.9

market —

Projected total

45.7

market — · 80% range 26–66

C Michigan win probability

53.9%

from the score grid

Under probability

—

at the current total of —

Most likely score

21–24

1.0% of the grid — one cell of 6,400

How this number is made. Every FBS team starts the season at a preseason expectation built from last season's ratings, roster talent, recruiting, returning production and the coaching situation. After every game a filter updates each team's offense and defense, opponent-adjusted, and the two teams' numbers meet here with the home advantage. The total adds the teams' pace and the wind. The market is never an input; it is shown so you can see where Atlas differs and read why.

Matchup how each offense compares with the defense it faces, season to date, ranked among 138 FBS teams

Season to date through 24 October: C Michigan 8 games, E Michigan 9 games. Ranks are among 138 FBS teams, 1st the best; the crest marks which side ranks better on each line.

C Michigan offensevs E Michigan defense

17.9132nd

Points per game

edge E Michigan

25.786th

5.07131st

Yards per play

edge E Michigan

6.16105th

170.553rd

Rushing yards per game

edge C Michigan

141.767th

128.5134th

Passing yards per game

edge E Michigan

237.298th

2.8131st

20+ yard plays per game

edge E Michigan

3.850th

2.297th

Sacks per game

edge C Michigan

1.6104th

37%99th

Third-down conversion rate

42%99th

64%50th

Red-zone touchdown rate

edge C Michigan

68%118th

E Michigan offensevs C Michigan defense

21.3112th

Points per game

edge C Michigan

25.990th

4.92134th

Yards per play

edge C Michigan

5.8986th

113.9121st

Rushing yards per game

edge C Michigan

177.6108th

213.988th

Passing yards per game

edge C Michigan

195.133rd

3.2128th

20+ yard plays per game

edge C Michigan

4.697th

1.981st

Sacks per game

edge C Michigan

2.067th

40%79th

Third-down conversion rate

edge E Michigan

50%134th

58%82nd

Red-zone touchdown rate

edge E Michigan

67%114th

C Michiganvs E Michigan

Situational

+0.5038th

Turnover margin per game

edge C Michigan

−0.1180th

59.0126th most

Plays per game

66.666th most

Figures come from completed games only, so every one was known before kickoff. They are raw, not adjusted for opponents - All drivers has Atlas's adjusted view. College counts sack yardage as rushing, as the NCAA does.

Other models what FPI, SP+ and Elo say about this game, beside Atlas and the market

Model	Margin	Win	As of
FPI (ESPN)	CMU by 2.0	56%	Oct 28
SP+	EMU by 2.1	—	Oct 29
Elo	CMU by 0.2	—	Oct 29
Atlas	CMU by 1.9	54%	live

Each model's number for this game as its source published it before kickoff; Win is the favored side's chance to win, where the model gives one. FPI's margin and chance are ESPN's own. SP+ is the difference in the two teams' ratings, plus 2.5 for a home side; Elo is the difference in ratings at 24 points a point, plus 2.6 for a home side, as Atlas measured it on past seasons. None of these is an input to Atlas's number, and none is here to settle anything: they show where Atlas sits among other models.

How this grade was computed the four things that set the letter, out of a hundred

All drivers all 4 things the model is reading, and how each team ranks against the rest of the country

Pace and possessions 104 plays · 29th percentile

A combined 104 plays per game — the 29th percentile of this season's games. Few possessions, which pulls the projected total down.

fewer playsmore plays

Defense, in points CMU +2.5 pts

Atlas rates C Michigan's defense at -2.9 points a game against FBS average and E Michigan's at -5.4, opponent-adjusted, after 7 games this season.

C MichiganE Michigan

Pace and wind, on the total -1.8 pts

The teams' pace moves the projected total by -1.8 and the wind by +0.0, against an average game.

lower totalhigher total

Success rate EMU +2.2 pts

E Michigan succeeds on 41.7% of plays (18th percentile) against C Michigan's 39.5% (6th percentile).

C MichiganE Michigan

Market movement how far the market has moved since the number opened, and which way

Reliability record what Atlas claimed and what it delivered, across the seasons it never saw while being built

What this card is. Research, analytics and market context. Atlas does not publish selections, does not size anything and does not project returns. Every figure is computed out of sample from a point-in-time database: nothing attached to a game uses information that did not exist before kickoff.