A wide disagreement of 5.6 points.
Across five seasons, cards this far from the market claimed 62% accuracy and delivered 48%. Atlas commonly struggles this far out.
How much weight this card's information deserves — not a recommendation.
Why
what the model is reading-
Defense, in points
TEX +9.2 pts
- Pace and possessions 114 plays · 71st percentile
- Pace and wind, on the total +3.4 pts
Be careful about
- One book is quoting this game, so the market number has no depth behind it and may move sharply.
- Atlas and the market have moved opposite ways on the total since it opened.
Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status
New to Atlas? What a card is, and what a grade means
Market detail where the line opened, where it is now, and the prices
| Spread | Open | Current | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | −18.5 | −20.5 | +2.0 |
| Mississippi St | +18.5 | +20.5 | −2.0 |
| Price | −110 | −105 | — |
The spread has moved 2.0 toward Texas and the total has moved 2.0 down since the open.
| Total | Open | Current | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game total | 52.5 | 50.5 | −2.0 |
| Price (over) | −110 | −115 | — |
DraftKings · 1 book quoting
Projection detail the projected score, the chance of winning, the total's range and the most likely exact score
Atlas difference
| Measure | Atlas model | Market | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TEX −14.9 | TEX −20.5 | −5.6 |
| Total | 56.8 | 50.5 | +6.3 |
| Texas win probability | 83.2% | 89.9% | −6.7 pts |
Matchup how each offense compares with the defense it faces, season to date, ranked among 138 FBS teams
Season to date through 24 October: Mississippi St 7 games, Texas 7 games. Ranks are among 138 FBS teams, 1st the best; the crest marks which side ranks better on each line.
edge Texasedge Texasedge Texasedge Texasedge Texasedge Texasedge Texasedge Texasedge Texasedge Mississippi Stedge Mississippi Stedge Texasedge Mississippi Stedge Mississippi Stedge Texasedge Mississippi Stedge TexasFigures come from completed games only, so every one was known before kickoff. They are raw, not adjusted for opponents - All drivers has Atlas's adjusted view. College counts sack yardage as rushing, as the NCAA does.
Other models what FPI, SP+ and Elo say about this game, beside Atlas and the market
| Model | Margin | Win | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| FPI (ESPN) | TEX by 18.8 | 90% | Oct 28 |
| SP+ | TEX by 16.9 | — | Oct 29 |
| Elo | TEX by 17.1 | — | Oct 29 |
| Atlas | TEX by 14.9 | 83% | live |
| Market | TEX by 20.5 | — | live |
Each model's number for this game as its source published it before kickoff; Win is the favored side's chance to win, where the model gives one. FPI's margin and chance are ESPN's own. SP+ is the difference in the two teams' ratings, plus 2.5 for a home side; Elo is the difference in ratings at 24 points a point, plus 2.6 for a home side, as Atlas measured it on past seasons. None of these is an input to Atlas's number, and none is here to settle anything: they show where Atlas sits among other models.
How this grade was computed the four things that set the letter, out of a hundred
Low-reliability card
Atlas sits 5.6 points from the market. Cards in the 4-6 band claimed 62% accuracy and delivered 48% — read the drivers and the market context, and treat the projection as weak.
Atlas sits 5.6 points from the market. The calibration curve, fitted to every completed season out of sample, expects cards at that distance to fall 15.4% short of what they claim — which is where the calibration component above comes from.
The total has moved 2.0 points since it opened. Cards on a market that has moved have calibrated worse in five of six seasons.
The grade describes how much weight the information deserves. It says nothing about which side of a market anyone should take, and Atlas does not publish that. How grades are computed.
All drivers all 4 things the model is reading, and how each team ranks against the rest of the country
Atlas rates Texas' defense at +12.5 points a game against FBS average and Mississippi St's at +3.4, opponent-adjusted, after 7 games this season.
A combined 114 plays per game — the 71st percentile of this season's games. A fast game, which lifts the projected total.
The teams' pace moves the projected total by +2.7 and the wind by +0.7, against an average game.
Atlas rates Texas' offense at +9.2 points a game against FBS average and Mississippi St's at +6.3, opponent-adjusted, after 7 games this season.
Market movement how far the market has moved since the number opened, and which way
Total, open to current
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Opening number | 52.5 |
| Current number | 50.5 |
| Market direction | down 2.0 |
| Atlas direction | up |
Atlas and the market point opposite ways on this total. That is information, not a verdict.
Two findings that are not in conflict
Atlas has measured disagreement twice, against two different reference points, and they say different things.
| Measured against | What it predicts |
|---|---|
| The closing number | the model's own failure — so a large difference lowers the grade |
| The opening number | which way the line moves — tracked publicly, not graded |
A model far from the close is wrong; a model far from the open is early. The second finding is tracked in the open closing-line record and is deliberately kept out of the grade.
Reliability record what Atlas claimed and what it delivered, across the seasons it never saw while being built
Calibration by disagreement band
Two series, labeled directly. The widening gap is why Atlas grades large disagreements down.
This band, five seasons
| Measure | This band | All cards |
|---|---|---|
| Realized accuracy | 48.3% | 49.2% |
| Claimed accuracy | 61.9% | 58.0% |
| Calibration gap | −13.5 pts | −8.8 pts |
| Seasons above 50% | 1 of 5 | — |
| Games measured | 634 | 3,864 |