Ohio at Akron — Atlas projection and grade

Ohio

Mid-American · 6-2

Akron

Mid-American · 1-7

Tue 3 Nov · 7:00 PM ET · ESPN2 · InfoCision Stadium

Rest OHIO 10 days, AKR 10 days · Travel OHIO 125 mi

Market

not posted

total —

Atlas projectsAtlas

32.4–18.8

OHIO–AKR · total 51.1

Difference

—

on the spread · total —

–

Not graded

No market is posted yet, so there is nothing to grade Atlas's number against.

A grade is how much weight a card's information deserves — not a recommendation.

Why

what the model is reading

Defense, in points OHIO +9.7 pts
Offense, in points OHIO +7.2 pts
Pace and possessions 105 plays · 30th percentile

Be careful about

One book is quoting this game, so the market number has no depth behind it and may move sharply.

Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 5:24 AM ETData status

New to Atlas? What a card is, and what a grade means

Market detail where the line opened, where it is now, and the prices

No spread posted.

Neither number has moved since it opened.

No total posted.

Moneyline not posted No book prices a moneyline on this game. Atlas leaves the field empty rather than deriving one from the spread.

no market posted

Projection detail the projected score, the chance of winning, the total's range and the most likely exact score

Projected score

32.4 – 18.8

Ohio – Akron

Projected spread

OHIO −13.6

market —

Projected total

51.1

market — · 80% range 31–72

Ohio win probability

79.8%

from the score grid

Under probability

—

at the current total of —

Most likely score

31–24

0.9% of the grid — one cell of 6,400

How this number is made. Every FBS team starts the season at a preseason expectation built from last season's ratings, roster talent, recruiting, returning production and the coaching situation. After every game a filter updates each team's offense and defense, opponent-adjusted, and the two teams' numbers meet here with the home advantage. The total adds the teams' pace and the wind. The market is never an input; it is shown so you can see where Atlas differs and read why.

Matchup how each offense compares with the defense it faces, season to date, ranked among 138 FBS teams

Season to date through 24 October: Ohio 8 games, Akron 8 games. Ranks are among 138 FBS teams, 1st the best; the crest marks which side ranks better on each line.

Ohio offensevs Akron defense

29.665th

Points per game

edge Ohio

32.8125th

6.0662nd

Yards per play

edge Ohio

7.01133rd

197.828th

Rushing yards per game

edge Ohio

186.8117th

177.0126th

Passing yards per game

edge Akron

240.0101st

3.4122nd

20+ yard plays per game

edge Akron

4.9107th

1.861st

Sacks per game

edge Ohio

0.4138th

53%11th

Third-down conversion rate

edge Ohio

39%79th

67%33rd

Red-zone touchdown rate

edge Ohio

54%61st

Akron offensevs Ohio defense

19.0129th

Points per game

edge Ohio

21.952nd

5.61105th

Yards per play

edge Ohio

5.4256th

136.1100th

Rushing yards per game

edge Ohio

134.459th

227.680th

Passing yards per game

edge Ohio

196.637th

4.193rd

20+ yard plays per game

edge Ohio

3.534th

2.9124th

Sacks per game

edge Ohio

2.067th

44%41st

Third-down conversion rate

edge Akron

39%68th

62%59th

Red-zone touchdown rate

edge Ohio

48%38th

Ohiovs Akron

Situational

−0.1281st

Turnover margin per game

edge Ohio

−0.62121st

61.9108th most

Plays per game

64.977th most

Figures come from completed games only, so every one was known before kickoff. They are raw, not adjusted for opponents - All drivers has Atlas's adjusted view. College counts sack yardage as rushing, as the NCAA does.

Other models what FPI, SP+ and Elo say about this game, beside Atlas and the market

Model	Margin	Win	As of
FPI (ESPN)	OHIO by 14.1	84%	Oct 28
SP+	OHIO by 21.1	—	Oct 29
Elo	OHIO by 21.5	—	Oct 29
Atlas	OHIO by 13.6	80%	live

Each model's number for this game as its source published it before kickoff; Win is the favored side's chance to win, where the model gives one. FPI's margin and chance are ESPN's own. SP+ is the difference in the two teams' ratings, plus 2.5 for a home side; Elo is the difference in ratings at 24 points a point, plus 2.6 for a home side, as Atlas measured it on past seasons. None of these is an input to Atlas's number, and none is here to settle anything: they show where Atlas sits among other models.

How this grade was computed the four things that set the letter, out of a hundred

All drivers all 4 things the model is reading, and how each team ranks against the rest of the country

Defense, in points OHIO +9.7 pts

Atlas rates Ohio's defense at -0.4 points a game against FBS average and Akron's at -10.1, opponent-adjusted, after 7 games this season.

OhioAkron

Offense, in points OHIO +7.2 pts

Atlas rates Ohio's offense at -2.7 points a game against FBS average and Akron's at -9.9, opponent-adjusted, after 7 games this season.

OhioAkron

Pace and possessions 105 plays · 30th percentile

A combined 105 plays per game — the 30th percentile of this season's games. Few possessions, which pulls the projected total down.

fewer playsmore plays

Home advantage AKR +2.6 pts

Playing at home is worth 2.6 points in this season's model, fitted, not assumed.

OhioAkron

Market movement how far the market has moved since the number opened, and which way

Reliability record what Atlas claimed and what it delivered, across the seasons it never saw while being built

What this card is. Research, analytics and market context. Atlas does not publish selections, does not size anything and does not project returns. Every figure is computed out of sample from a point-in-time database: nothing attached to a game uses information that did not exist before kickoff.