The market, its margin taken out: Blues 51%, Bruins 49%.
Projected score Blues 3.0, Bruins 3.0 · the likeliest final Blues 3, Bruins 2 (7%).
Atlas and the market land on the same number, 0.0 points of win probability apart.
Agreement is where this model is most reliable, and where it is adding least — a top grade means trust the number, not that this is the card to read first.
How much weight this card's information deserves — not a recommendation.
Why
what the model is reading- Home iceBlues +0.24 goals a game
- GoaltendingBruins +0.21 goals a game
- 5-on-5 playBlues +0.05 goals a game
Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status
New to Atlas? What a card is, and what a grade means
Market snapshot moneyline, puck line, total
| Moneyline | Open | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Bruins | +105 | −105 |
| Blues | −125 | −115 |
| Puck line and total | Price |
|---|---|
| Blues −1.5 | +220 |
| Bruins +1.5 | −270 |
| Over 5.5 | −130 |
| Under 5.5 | +110 |
De-vigged, the moneyline gives Blues a 51.1% chance. DraftKings, through ESPN.
Atlas's numbers the whole score grid
| Outcome | Atlas |
|---|---|
| Blues in regulation | 39.7% |
| Level after sixty minutes | 22.3% |
| Bruins in regulation | 38.0% |
| Blues by two or more | 30.5% |
| Bruins by two or more | 29.5% |
| Goals in the game | Atlas |
|---|---|
| More than 4.5 | 75.9% |
| More than 5.5 | 52.7% |
| More than 6.5 | 42.0% |
| More than 7.5 | 22.9% |
Expected goals: Blues 3.03, Bruins 3.00, overtime's goal included. The likeliest finals: Blues 3–2 (7%), Blues 2–3 (6%), Blues 4–3 (5%).
Goalies the expected starters
| Team | Goalie | Chance he starts | Goals saved a game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bruins | Jeremy Swayman | 78% | +0.25 |
| Bruins | Michael DiPietro | 21% | +0.09 |
| Bruins | Joonas Korpisalo | 2% | -0.00 |
| Blues | Joel Hofer | 65% | +0.14 |
| Blues | Jordan Binnington | 35% | -0.26 |
| Blues | Thomas Greiss | 0% | -0.02 |
Atlas prices the expected starter: each goalie by his share of recent starts, marked down after a start the night before. Goals saved are above expected, a game at the league's shot volume, shrunk hard: a season of starts is still mostly noise.
What the model reads each team, against the league
| Per 60 minutes, against the league | Bruins | Blues |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 offence | -0.04 | -0.15 |
| 5-on-5 defence | -0.00 | +0.17 |
| Power play | -0.20 | -1.13 |
| Penalty kill | -0.18 | +0.38 |
| Finishing | +0.09 | +0.08 |
Expected goals for and against at 5-on-5 and on special teams, and goals scored over expected, each carried across seasons and updated after every game.
Reliability the model's own record
| Points of win probability from the market | Games | Atlas claimed | Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 2,276 | 50.5% | 48.7% |
| 1-2 | 2,132 | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| 2-4 | 3,466 | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| 4-6 | 2,121 | 54.2% | 52.6% |
| 6-8 | 1,103 | 55.0% | 50.2% |
| 8-10 | 443 | 56.5% | 51.2% |
| 10+ | 318 | 58.1% | 48.4% |
| All cards | 11,859 | 52.7% | 50.9% |
The NHL model walked forward over every season since 2013-14 it never saw, against the closing moneyline: how often the side Atlas rated above the market won.