The market, its margin taken out: Ducks 46%, Sabres 54%.
Projected score Ducks 3.3, Sabres 3.5 · the likeliest final Ducks 3, Sabres 2 (6%).
Atlas and the market are closely aligned, 3.1 points of win probability apart.
Across ten seasons, cards this far from the market claimed 52% accuracy and delivered 52%.
How much weight this card's information deserves — not a recommendation.
Why
what the model is reading- Home iceDucks +0.24 goals a game
- 5-on-5 playSabres +0.11 goals a game
- GoaltendingSabres +0.09 goals a game
Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status
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Market snapshot moneyline, puck line, total
| Moneyline | Open | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Sabres | −130 | −130 |
| Ducks | +102 | +110 |
| Puck line and total | Price |
|---|---|
| Sabres −1.5 | +180 |
| Ducks +1.5 | −218 |
| Over 6.5 | −125 |
| Under 6.5 | +105 |
De-vigged, the moneyline gives Ducks a 45.7% chance. DraftKings, through ESPN.
Atlas's numbers the whole score grid
| Outcome | Atlas |
|---|---|
| Ducks in regulation | 38.3% |
| Level after sixty minutes | 20.8% |
| Sabres in regulation | 40.9% |
| Ducks by two or more | 29.7% |
| Sabres by two or more | 32.7% |
| Goals in the game | Atlas |
|---|---|
| More than 4.5 | 84.2% |
| More than 5.5 | 64.8% |
| More than 6.5 | 54.6% |
| More than 7.5 | 33.9% |
Expected goals: Ducks 3.33, Sabres 3.45, overtime's goal included. The likeliest finals: Ducks 3–2 (6%), Ducks 4–3 (6%), Ducks 2–3 (5%).
Goalies the expected starters
| Team | Goalie | Chance he starts | Goals saved a game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sabres | Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | 64% | -0.02 |
| Sabres | Colten Ellis | 30% | +0.04 |
| Sabres | Alex Lyon | 6% | +0.17 |
| Ducks | Lukas Dostal | 75% | -0.09 |
| Ducks | Ville Husso | 25% | -0.06 |
| Ducks | Petr Mrazek | 0% | -0.15 |
Atlas prices the expected starter: each goalie by his share of recent starts, marked down after a start the night before. Goals saved are above expected, a game at the league's shot volume, shrunk hard: a season of starts is still mostly noise.
What the model reads each team, against the league
| Per 60 minutes, against the league | Sabres | Ducks |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 offence | +0.04 | +0.08 |
| 5-on-5 defence | +0.09 | -0.09 |
| Power play | -0.15 | -0.08 |
| Penalty kill | -0.26 | -0.13 |
| Finishing | +0.05 | -0.03 |
Expected goals for and against at 5-on-5 and on special teams, and goals scored over expected, each carried across seasons and updated after every game.
Reliability the model's own record
| Points of win probability from the market | Games | Atlas claimed | Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 2,276 | 50.5% | 48.7% |
| 1-2 | 2,132 | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| 2-4 | 3,466 | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| 4-6 | 2,121 | 54.2% | 52.6% |
| 6-8 | 1,103 | 55.0% | 50.2% |
| 8-10 | 443 | 56.5% | 51.2% |
| 10+ | 318 | 58.1% | 48.4% |
| All cards | 11,859 | 52.7% | 50.9% |
The NHL model walked forward over every season since 2013-14 it never saw, against the closing moneyline: how often the side Atlas rated above the market won.