The market, its margin taken out: Red Wings 62%, Blackhawks 38%.
Projected score Red Wings 3.4, Blackhawks 2.6 · the likeliest final Red Wings 3, Blackhawks 2 (7%).
Atlas and the market are closely aligned, 1.8 points of win probability apart.
Across ten seasons, cards this close to the market claimed 51% accuracy and delivered 51%.
How much weight this card's information deserves — not a recommendation.
Why
what the model is reading- 5-on-5 playRed Wings +0.49 goals a game
- Home iceRed Wings +0.24 goals a game
- Special teamsRed Wings +0.08 goals a game
Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status
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Market snapshot moneyline, puck line, total
| Moneyline | Open | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Blackhawks | +150 | +150 |
| Red Wings | −180 | −180 |
| Puck line and total | Price |
|---|---|
| Red Wings −1.5 | +142 |
| Blackhawks +1.5 | −170 |
| Over 5.5 | −135 |
| Under 5.5 | +114 |
De-vigged, the moneyline gives Red Wings a 61.6% chance. DraftKings, through ESPN.
Atlas's numbers the whole score grid
| Outcome | Atlas |
|---|---|
| Red Wings in regulation | 51.7% |
| Level after sixty minutes | 21.2% |
| Blackhawks in regulation | 27.1% |
| Red Wings by two or more | 41.6% |
| Blackhawks by two or more | 20.1% |
| Goals in the game | Atlas |
|---|---|
| More than 4.5 | 76.0% |
| More than 5.5 | 53.1% |
| More than 6.5 | 42.1% |
| More than 7.5 | 23.1% |
Expected goals: Red Wings 3.43, Blackhawks 2.61, overtime's goal included. The likeliest finals: Red Wings 3–2 (7%), Red Wings 4–1 (6%), Red Wings 4–3 (6%).
Goalies the expected starters
| Team | Goalie | Chance he starts | Goals saved a game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackhawks | Spencer Knight | 87% | +0.07 |
| Blackhawks | Arvid Soderblom | 13% | -0.16 |
| Blackhawks | Drew Commesso | 0% | +0.02 |
| Red Wings | John Gibson | 62% | -0.00 |
| Red Wings | Daniil Tarasov | 22% | +0.03 |
| Red Wings | Michal Postava | 13% | -0.00 |
Atlas prices the expected starter: each goalie by his share of recent starts, marked down after a start the night before. Goals saved are above expected, a game at the league's shot volume, shrunk hard: a season of starts is still mostly noise.
What the model reads each team, against the league
| Per 60 minutes, against the league | Blackhawks | Red Wings |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 offence | -0.37 | -0.13 |
| 5-on-5 defence | -0.26 | +0.11 |
| Power play | -0.81 | +0.62 |
| Penalty kill | -0.09 | -0.70 |
| Finishing | -0.02 | -0.09 |
Expected goals for and against at 5-on-5 and on special teams, and goals scored over expected, each carried across seasons and updated after every game.
Reliability the model's own record
| Points of win probability from the market | Games | Atlas claimed | Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 2,276 | 50.5% | 48.7% |
| 1-2 | 2,132 | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| 2-4 | 3,466 | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| 4-6 | 2,121 | 54.2% | 52.6% |
| 6-8 | 1,103 | 55.0% | 50.2% |
| 8-10 | 443 | 56.5% | 51.2% |
| 10+ | 318 | 58.1% | 48.4% |
| All cards | 11,859 | 52.7% | 50.9% |
The NHL model walked forward over every season since 2013-14 it never saw, against the closing moneyline: how often the side Atlas rated above the market won.