The market, its margin taken out: Hurricanes 67%, Blue Jackets 33%.
Projected score Hurricanes 3.7, Blue Jackets 2.4 · the likeliest final Hurricanes 3, Blue Jackets 2 (7%).
A moderate disagreement of 3.6 points of win probability.
Across ten seasons, cards this far from the market claimed 52% accuracy and delivered 52%. The claim runs a little ahead of the delivery.
How much weight this card's information deserves — not a recommendation.
Why
what the model is reading- 5-on-5 playHurricanes +0.68 goals a game
- Special teamsHurricanes +0.24 goals a game
- Home iceHurricanes +0.24 goals a game
Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status
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Market snapshot moneyline, puck line, total
| Moneyline | Open | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Blue Jackets | +164 | +190 |
| Hurricanes | −198 | −230 |
| Puck line and total | Price |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes −1.5 | +110 |
| Blue Jackets +1.5 | −130 |
| Over 6.5 | +114 |
| Under 6.5 | −135 |
De-vigged, the moneyline gives Hurricanes a 66.9% chance. DraftKings, through ESPN.
Atlas's numbers the whole score grid
| Outcome | Atlas |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes in regulation | 59.2% |
| Level after sixty minutes | 19.5% |
| Blue Jackets in regulation | 21.3% |
| Hurricanes by two or more | 49.1% |
| Blue Jackets by two or more | 15.4% |
| Goals in the game | Atlas |
|---|---|
| More than 4.5 | 77.3% |
| More than 5.5 | 55.0% |
| More than 6.5 | 43.8% |
| More than 7.5 | 24.7% |
Expected goals: Hurricanes 3.73, Blue Jackets 2.42, overtime's goal included. The likeliest finals: Hurricanes 3–2 (7%), Hurricanes 4–1 (7%), Hurricanes 5–2 (6%).
Goalies the expected starters
| Team | Goalie | Chance he starts | Goals saved a game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jackets | Cam Talbot | 49% | -0.11 |
| Blue Jackets | Jet Greaves | 48% | +0.14 |
| Blue Jackets | Elvis Merzlikins | 3% | -0.11 |
| Hurricanes | Pyotr Kochetkov | 59% | +0.04 |
| Hurricanes | Brandon Bussi | 35% | -0.03 |
| Hurricanes | Frederik Andersen | 6% | +0.09 |
Atlas prices the expected starter: each goalie by his share of recent starts, marked down after a start the night before. Goals saved are above expected, a game at the league's shot volume, shrunk hard: a season of starts is still mostly noise.
What the model reads each team, against the league
| Per 60 minutes, against the league | Blue Jackets | Hurricanes |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 offence | -0.12 | +0.44 |
| 5-on-5 defence | +0.10 | +0.39 |
| Power play | -0.17 | +0.46 |
| Penalty kill | -0.63 | +1.19 |
| Finishing | +0.01 | -0.09 |
Expected goals for and against at 5-on-5 and on special teams, and goals scored over expected, each carried across seasons and updated after every game.
Reliability the model's own record
| Points of win probability from the market | Games | Atlas claimed | Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 2,276 | 50.5% | 48.7% |
| 1-2 | 2,132 | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| 2-4 | 3,466 | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| 4-6 | 2,121 | 54.2% | 52.6% |
| 6-8 | 1,103 | 55.0% | 50.2% |
| 8-10 | 443 | 56.5% | 51.2% |
| 10+ | 318 | 58.1% | 48.4% |
| All cards | 11,859 | 52.7% | 50.9% |
The NHL model walked forward over every season since 2013-14 it never saw, against the closing moneyline: how often the side Atlas rated above the market won.