No moneyline is posted yet.
Projected score Capitals 2.9, Stars 3.0 · the likeliest final Capitals 3, Stars 2 (7%).
No moneyline is posted yet, so there is nothing to grade Atlas's number against.
A grade is how much weight a card's information deserves — not a recommendation.
Why
what the model is reading- Home iceCapitals +0.24 goals a game
- Special teamsStars +0.20 goals a game
- 5-on-5 playStars +0.17 goals a game
Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status
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Atlas's numbers the whole score grid
| Outcome | Atlas |
|---|---|
| Capitals in regulation | 38.4% |
| Level after sixty minutes | 22.6% |
| Stars in regulation | 39.1% |
| Capitals by two or more | 29.2% |
| Stars by two or more | 30.4% |
| Goals in the game | Atlas |
|---|---|
| More than 4.5 | 74.3% |
| More than 5.5 | 50.5% |
| More than 6.5 | 39.8% |
| More than 7.5 | 21.1% |
Expected goals: Capitals 2.92, Stars 2.97, overtime's goal included. The likeliest finals: Capitals 3–2 (7%), Capitals 2–3 (7%), Capitals 4–3 (5%).
Goalies the expected starters
| Team | Goalie | Chance he starts | Goals saved a game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stars | Jake Oettinger | 74% | +0.15 |
| Stars | Casey DeSmith | 26% | +0.07 |
| Stars | Scott Wedgewood | 0% | +0.11 |
| Capitals | Logan Thompson | 72% | +0.29 |
| Capitals | Charlie Lindgren | 26% | -0.08 |
| Capitals | Clay Stevenson | 2% | +0.00 |
Atlas prices the expected starter: each goalie by his share of recent starts, marked down after a start the night before. Goals saved are above expected, a game at the league's shot volume, shrunk hard: a season of starts is still mostly noise.
What the model reads each team, against the league
| Per 60 minutes, against the league | Stars | Capitals |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 offence | -0.19 | +0.04 |
| 5-on-5 defence | +0.38 | -0.06 |
| Power play | +1.00 | -0.02 |
| Penalty kill | +0.54 | -0.41 |
| Finishing | -0.03 | -0.01 |
Expected goals for and against at 5-on-5 and on special teams, and goals scored over expected, each carried across seasons and updated after every game.
Reliability the model's own record
| Points of win probability from the market | Games | Atlas claimed | Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 2,276 | 50.5% | 48.7% |
| 1-2 | 2,132 | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| 2-4 | 3,466 | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| 4-6 | 2,121 | 54.2% | 52.6% |
| 6-8 | 1,103 | 55.0% | 50.2% |
| 8-10 | 443 | 56.5% | 51.2% |
| 10+ | 318 | 58.1% | 48.4% |
| All cards | 11,859 | 52.7% | 50.9% |
The NHL model walked forward over every season since 2013-14 it never saw, against the closing moneyline: how often the side Atlas rated above the market won.