No moneyline is posted yet.
Projected score Lightning 3.7, Red Wings 2.5 · the likeliest final Lightning 3, Red Wings 2 (7%).
No moneyline is posted yet, so there is nothing to grade Atlas's number against.
A grade is how much weight a card's information deserves — not a recommendation.
Why
what the model is reading- 5-on-5 playLightning +0.27 goals a game
- Home iceLightning +0.24 goals a game
- FinishingLightning +0.13 goals a game
- RestRed Wings on the second night of a back-to-back
Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status
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Atlas's numbers the whole score grid
| Outcome | Atlas |
|---|---|
| Lightning in regulation | 56.7% |
| Level after sixty minutes | 20.1% |
| Red Wings in regulation | 23.2% |
| Lightning by two or more | 46.6% |
| Red Wings by two or more | 17.0% |
| Goals in the game | Atlas |
|---|---|
| More than 4.5 | 77.6% |
| More than 5.5 | 55.4% |
| More than 6.5 | 44.3% |
| More than 7.5 | 25.0% |
Expected goals: Lightning 3.66, Red Wings 2.51, overtime's goal included. The likeliest finals: Lightning 3–2 (7%), Lightning 4–1 (6%), Lightning 4–3 (6%).
Goalies the expected starters
| Team | Goalie | Chance he starts | Goals saved a game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Wings | John Gibson | 62% | -0.00 |
| Red Wings | Daniil Tarasov | 22% | +0.03 |
| Red Wings | Michal Postava | 13% | -0.00 |
| Lightning | Andrei Vasilevskiy | 70% | +0.14 |
| Lightning | Dennis Hildeby | 29% | +0.08 |
| Lightning | Jonas Johansson | 1% | -0.14 |
Atlas prices the expected starter: each goalie by his share of recent starts, marked down after a start the night before. Goals saved are above expected, a game at the league's shot volume, shrunk hard: a season of starts is still mostly noise.
What the model reads each team, against the league
| Per 60 minutes, against the league | Red Wings | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 offence | -0.13 | +0.09 |
| 5-on-5 defence | +0.11 | +0.24 |
| Power play | +0.62 | +0.10 |
| Penalty kill | -0.70 | +0.36 |
| Finishing | -0.09 | +0.04 |
Expected goals for and against at 5-on-5 and on special teams, and goals scored over expected, each carried across seasons and updated after every game.
Reliability the model's own record
| Points of win probability from the market | Games | Atlas claimed | Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 2,276 | 50.5% | 48.7% |
| 1-2 | 2,132 | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| 2-4 | 3,466 | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| 4-6 | 2,121 | 54.2% | 52.6% |
| 6-8 | 1,103 | 55.0% | 50.2% |
| 8-10 | 443 | 56.5% | 51.2% |
| 10+ | 318 | 58.1% | 48.4% |
| All cards | 11,859 | 52.7% | 50.9% |
The NHL model walked forward over every season since 2013-14 it never saw, against the closing moneyline: how often the side Atlas rated above the market won.