The market, its margin taken out: Stars 59%, Canadiens 41%.
Projected score Stars 3.3, Canadiens 2.6 · the likeliest final Stars 3, Canadiens 2 (7%).
Atlas and the market are closely aligned, 1.3 points of win probability apart.
Across ten seasons, cards this close to the market claimed 51% accuracy and delivered 51%.
How much weight this card's information deserves — not a recommendation.
Why
what the model is reading- Special teamsStars +0.24 goals a game
- Home iceStars +0.24 goals a game
- 5-on-5 playStars +0.18 goals a game
Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status
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Market snapshot moneyline, puck line, total
| Moneyline | Open | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Canadiens | +130 | +136 |
| Stars | −155 | −162 |
| Puck line and total | Price |
|---|---|
| Stars −1.5 | +160 |
| Canadiens +1.5 | −192 |
| Over 5.5 | −135 |
| Under 5.5 | +114 |
De-vigged, the moneyline gives Stars a 59.3% chance. DraftKings, through ESPN.
Atlas's numbers the whole score grid
| Outcome | Atlas |
|---|---|
| Stars in regulation | 48.7% |
| Level after sixty minutes | 21.9% |
| Canadiens in regulation | 29.4% |
| Stars by two or more | 38.7% |
| Canadiens by two or more | 22.0% |
| Goals in the game | Atlas |
|---|---|
| More than 4.5 | 74.5% |
| More than 5.5 | 50.9% |
| More than 6.5 | 40.1% |
| More than 7.5 | 21.4% |
Expected goals: Stars 3.27, Canadiens 2.64, overtime's goal included. The likeliest finals: Stars 3–2 (7%), Stars 2–3 (6%), Stars 4–1 (6%).
Goalies the expected starters
| Team | Goalie | Chance he starts | Goals saved a game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canadiens | Jacob Fowler | 61% | +0.24 |
| Canadiens | Jakub Dobes | 39% | +0.14 |
| Canadiens | Samuel Montembeault | 0% | +0.09 |
| Stars | Jake Oettinger | 74% | +0.15 |
| Stars | Casey DeSmith | 26% | +0.07 |
| Stars | Scott Wedgewood | 0% | +0.11 |
Atlas prices the expected starter: each goalie by his share of recent starts, marked down after a start the night before. Goals saved are above expected, a game at the league's shot volume, shrunk hard: a season of starts is still mostly noise.
What the model reads each team, against the league
| Per 60 minutes, against the league | Canadiens | Stars |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 offence | -0.02 | -0.19 |
| 5-on-5 defence | -0.01 | +0.38 |
| Power play | -0.44 | +1.00 |
| Penalty kill | -0.47 | +0.54 |
| Finishing | +0.02 | -0.03 |
Expected goals for and against at 5-on-5 and on special teams, and goals scored over expected, each carried across seasons and updated after every game.
Reliability the model's own record
| Points of win probability from the market | Games | Atlas claimed | Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 2,276 | 50.5% | 48.7% |
| 1-2 | 2,132 | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| 2-4 | 3,466 | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| 4-6 | 2,121 | 54.2% | 52.6% |
| 6-8 | 1,103 | 55.0% | 50.2% |
| 8-10 | 443 | 56.5% | 51.2% |
| 10+ | 318 | 58.1% | 48.4% |
| All cards | 11,859 | 52.7% | 50.9% |
The NHL model walked forward over every season since 2013-14 it never saw, against the closing moneyline: how often the side Atlas rated above the market won.