The market, its margin taken out: Wild 63%, Islanders 37%.
Projected score Wild 3.5, Islanders 2.6 · the likeliest final Wild 3, Islanders 2 (7%).
Atlas and the market are closely aligned, 1.0 points of win probability apart.
Across ten seasons, cards this close to the market claimed 51% accuracy and delivered 51%.
How much weight this card's information deserves — not a recommendation.
Why
what the model is reading- Home iceWild +0.24 goals a game
- 5-on-5 playWild +0.23 goals a game
- Special teamsWild +0.15 goals a game
Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status
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Market snapshot moneyline, puck line, total
| Moneyline | Open | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Islanders | +164 | +160 |
| Wild | −198 | −192 |
| Puck line and total | Price |
|---|---|
| Wild −1.5 | +136 |
| Islanders +1.5 | −162 |
| Over 5.5 | −120 |
| Under 5.5 | +100 |
De-vigged, the moneyline gives Wild a 63.1% chance. DraftKings, through ESPN.
Atlas's numbers the whole score grid
| Outcome | Atlas |
|---|---|
| Wild in regulation | 52.5% |
| Level after sixty minutes | 20.9% |
| Islanders in regulation | 26.6% |
| Wild by two or more | 42.5% |
| Islanders by two or more | 19.7% |
| Goals in the game | Atlas |
|---|---|
| More than 4.5 | 77.2% |
| More than 5.5 | 54.6% |
| More than 6.5 | 43.7% |
| More than 7.5 | 24.4% |
Expected goals: Wild 3.50, Islanders 2.63, overtime's goal included. The likeliest finals: Wild 3–2 (7%), Wild 4–1 (6%), Wild 4–3 (6%).
Goalies the expected starters
| Team | Goalie | Chance he starts | Goals saved a game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Islanders | Ilya Sorokin | 62% | +0.19 |
| Islanders | Semyon Varlamov | 35% | +0.10 |
| Islanders | David Rittich | 2% | -0.02 |
| Wild | Jesper Wallstedt | 81% | +0.18 |
| Wild | Calvin Pickard | 17% | -0.14 |
| Wild | Filip Gustavsson | 2% | -0.04 |
Atlas prices the expected starter: each goalie by his share of recent starts, marked down after a start the night before. Goals saved are above expected, a game at the league's shot volume, shrunk hard: a season of starts is still mostly noise.
What the model reads each team, against the league
| Per 60 minutes, against the league | Islanders | Wild |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 offence | -0.04 | +0.03 |
| 5-on-5 defence | -0.01 | +0.21 |
| Power play | -0.43 | +0.99 |
| Penalty kill | -0.54 | -0.42 |
| Finishing | -0.11 | +0.03 |
Expected goals for and against at 5-on-5 and on special teams, and goals scored over expected, each carried across seasons and updated after every game.
Reliability the model's own record
| Points of win probability from the market | Games | Atlas claimed | Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 2,276 | 50.5% | 48.7% |
| 1-2 | 2,132 | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| 2-4 | 3,466 | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| 4-6 | 2,121 | 54.2% | 52.6% |
| 6-8 | 1,103 | 55.0% | 50.2% |
| 8-10 | 443 | 56.5% | 51.2% |
| 10+ | 318 | 58.1% | 48.4% |
| All cards | 11,859 | 52.7% | 50.9% |
The NHL model walked forward over every season since 2013-14 it never saw, against the closing moneyline: how often the side Atlas rated above the market won.