The market, its margin taken out: Kings 49%, Senators 51%.
Projected score Kings 3.0, Senators 3.0 · the likeliest final Kings 3, Senators 2 (7%).
Atlas and the market are closely aligned, 1.2 points of win probability apart.
Across ten seasons, cards this close to the market claimed 51% accuracy and delivered 51%.
How much weight this card's information deserves — not a recommendation.
Why
what the model is reading- Home iceKings +0.24 goals a game
- Special teamsSenators +0.07 goals a game
- FinishingSenators +0.05 goals a game
Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status
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Market snapshot moneyline, puck line, total
| Moneyline | Open | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Senators | −110 | −115 |
| Kings | −110 | −105 |
| Puck line and total | Price |
|---|---|
| Senators −1.5 | +225 |
| Kings +1.5 | −278 |
| Over 5.5 | −125 |
| Under 5.5 | +105 |
De-vigged, the moneyline gives Kings a 48.9% chance. DraftKings, through ESPN.
Atlas's numbers the whole score grid
| Outcome | Atlas |
|---|---|
| Kings in regulation | 38.7% |
| Level after sixty minutes | 22.4% |
| Senators in regulation | 38.9% |
| Kings by two or more | 29.6% |
| Senators by two or more | 30.3% |
| Goals in the game | Atlas |
|---|---|
| More than 4.5 | 75.4% |
| More than 5.5 | 52.0% |
| More than 6.5 | 41.3% |
| More than 7.5 | 22.2% |
Expected goals: Kings 2.98, Senators 3.00, overtime's goal included. The likeliest finals: Kings 3–2 (7%), Kings 2–3 (7%), Kings 4–3 (5%).
Goalies the expected starters
| Team | Goalie | Chance he starts | Goals saved a game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senators | Linus Ullmark | 53% | +0.16 |
| Senators | Jonas Johansson | 25% | -0.14 |
| Senators | Samuel Ersson | 20% | -0.27 |
| Kings | Darcy Kuemper | 54% | -0.08 |
| Kings | Anton Forsberg | 46% | +0.05 |
| Kings | Pheonix Copley | 0% | -0.02 |
Atlas prices the expected starter: each goalie by his share of recent starts, marked down after a start the night before. Goals saved are above expected, a game at the league's shot volume, shrunk hard: a season of starts is still mostly noise.
What the model reads each team, against the league
| Per 60 minutes, against the league | Senators | Kings |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 offence | -0.10 | -0.12 |
| 5-on-5 defence | +0.21 | +0.18 |
| Power play | +0.02 | -0.14 |
| Penalty kill | +0.47 | -0.05 |
| Finishing | -0.04 | -0.09 |
Expected goals for and against at 5-on-5 and on special teams, and goals scored over expected, each carried across seasons and updated after every game.
Reliability the model's own record
| Points of win probability from the market | Games | Atlas claimed | Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 2,276 | 50.5% | 48.7% |
| 1-2 | 2,132 | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| 2-4 | 3,466 | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| 4-6 | 2,121 | 54.2% | 52.6% |
| 6-8 | 1,103 | 55.0% | 50.2% |
| 8-10 | 443 | 56.5% | 51.2% |
| 10+ | 318 | 58.1% | 48.4% |
| All cards | 11,859 | 52.7% | 50.9% |
The NHL model walked forward over every season since 2013-14 it never saw, against the closing moneyline: how often the side Atlas rated above the market won.