No moneyline is posted yet.
Projected score Rangers 3.2, Flyers 2.6 · the likeliest final Rangers 3, Flyers 2 (8%).
No moneyline is posted yet, so there is nothing to grade Atlas's number against.
A grade is how much weight a card's information deserves — not a recommendation.
Why
what the model is reading- Home iceRangers +0.24 goals a game
- FinishingRangers +0.17 goals a game
- 5-on-5 playRangers +0.06 goals a game
Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status
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Atlas's numbers the whole score grid
| Outcome | Atlas |
|---|---|
| Rangers in regulation | 48.6% |
| Level after sixty minutes | 22.2% |
| Flyers in regulation | 29.2% |
| Rangers by two or more | 38.4% |
| Flyers by two or more | 21.7% |
| Goals in the game | Atlas |
|---|---|
| More than 4.5 | 72.4% |
| More than 5.5 | 48.2% |
| More than 6.5 | 37.4% |
| More than 7.5 | 19.4% |
Expected goals: Rangers 3.19, Flyers 2.57, overtime's goal included. The likeliest finals: Rangers 3–2 (8%), Rangers 2–3 (6%), Rangers 4–1 (6%).
Goalies the expected starters
| Team | Goalie | Chance he starts | Goals saved a game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flyers | Joseph Woll | 50% | -0.03 |
| Flyers | Dan Vladar | 49% | +0.08 |
| Flyers | Samuel Ersson | 1% | -0.27 |
| Rangers | Dylan Garand | 62% | +0.02 |
| Rangers | Igor Shesterkin | 23% | +0.21 |
| Rangers | James Reimer | 13% | -0.01 |
Atlas prices the expected starter: each goalie by his share of recent starts, marked down after a start the night before. Goals saved are above expected, a game at the league's shot volume, shrunk hard: a season of starts is still mostly noise.
What the model reads each team, against the league
| Per 60 minutes, against the league | Flyers | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 offence | -0.40 | -0.24 |
| 5-on-5 defence | +0.19 | +0.10 |
| Power play | -0.23 | +0.56 |
| Penalty kill | +0.52 | +0.10 |
| Finishing | -0.09 | +0.07 |
Expected goals for and against at 5-on-5 and on special teams, and goals scored over expected, each carried across seasons and updated after every game.
Reliability the model's own record
| Points of win probability from the market | Games | Atlas claimed | Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 2,276 | 50.5% | 48.7% |
| 1-2 | 2,132 | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| 2-4 | 3,466 | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| 4-6 | 2,121 | 54.2% | 52.6% |
| 6-8 | 1,103 | 55.0% | 50.2% |
| 8-10 | 443 | 56.5% | 51.2% |
| 10+ | 318 | 58.1% | 48.4% |
| All cards | 11,859 | 52.7% | 50.9% |
The NHL model walked forward over every season since 2013-14 it never saw, against the closing moneyline: how often the side Atlas rated above the market won.