The market, its margin taken out: Penguins 46%, Mammoth 54%.
Projected score Penguins 3.4, Mammoth 3.3 · the likeliest final Penguins 3, Mammoth 2 (6%).
A large disagreement of 7.7 points of win probability.
Across ten seasons, cards this far from the market claimed 55% accuracy and delivered 50%. That gap is where this grade comes from.
How much weight this card's information deserves — not a recommendation.
Why
what the model is reading- Home icePenguins +0.24 goals a game
- 5-on-5 playMammoth +0.10 goals a game
- Special teamsPenguins +0.04 goals a game
Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status
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Market snapshot moneyline, puck line, total
| Moneyline | Open | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Mammoth | −130 | −130 |
| Penguins | +110 | +110 |
| Puck line and total | Price |
|---|---|
| Mammoth −1.5 | +170 |
| Penguins +1.5 | −205 |
| Over 6.5 | −135 |
| Under 6.5 | +114 |
De-vigged, the moneyline gives Penguins a 45.7% chance. DraftKings, through ESPN.
Atlas's numbers the whole score grid
| Outcome | Atlas |
|---|---|
| Penguins in regulation | 42.5% |
| Level after sixty minutes | 20.9% |
| Mammoth in regulation | 36.6% |
| Penguins by two or more | 33.5% |
| Mammoth by two or more | 28.7% |
| Goals in the game | Atlas |
|---|---|
| More than 4.5 | 83.3% |
| More than 5.5 | 63.4% |
| More than 6.5 | 53.1% |
| More than 7.5 | 32.5% |
Expected goals: Penguins 3.44, Mammoth 3.25, overtime's goal included. The likeliest finals: Penguins 3–2 (6%), Penguins 4–3 (6%), Penguins 2–3 (5%).
Goalies the expected starters
| Team | Goalie | Chance he starts | Goals saved a game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mammoth | Karel Vejmelka | 82% | -0.06 |
| Mammoth | Sebastian Cossa | 17% | -0.07 |
| Mammoth | Vitek Vanecek | 1% | -0.14 |
| Penguins | Arturs Silovs | 68% | -0.10 |
| Penguins | Sergei Murashov | 26% | -0.07 |
| Penguins | Stuart Skinner | 6% | +0.07 |
Atlas prices the expected starter: each goalie by his share of recent starts, marked down after a start the night before. Goals saved are above expected, a game at the league's shot volume, shrunk hard: a season of starts is still mostly noise.
What the model reads each team, against the league
| Per 60 minutes, against the league | Mammoth | Penguins |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 offence | +0.15 | +0.12 |
| 5-on-5 defence | +0.22 | +0.13 |
| Power play | +0.19 | -0.15 |
| Penalty kill | -0.42 | +0.29 |
| Finishing | +0.04 | +0.04 |
Expected goals for and against at 5-on-5 and on special teams, and goals scored over expected, each carried across seasons and updated after every game.
Reliability the model's own record
| Points of win probability from the market | Games | Atlas claimed | Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 2,276 | 50.5% | 48.7% |
| 1-2 | 2,132 | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| 2-4 | 3,466 | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| 4-6 | 2,121 | 54.2% | 52.6% |
| 6-8 | 1,103 | 55.0% | 50.2% |
| 8-10 | 443 | 56.5% | 51.2% |
| 10+ | 318 | 58.1% | 48.4% |
| All cards | 11,859 | 52.7% | 50.9% |
The NHL model walked forward over every season since 2013-14 it never saw, against the closing moneyline: how often the side Atlas rated above the market won.