The market, its margin taken out: Sharks 63%, Canucks 37%.
Projected score Sharks 3.7, Canucks 2.9 · the likeliest final Sharks 3, Canucks 2 (6%).
Atlas and the market land on the same number, 0.9 points of win probability apart.
Agreement is where this model is most reliable, and where it is adding least — a top grade means trust the number, not that this is the card to read first.
How much weight this card's information deserves — not a recommendation.
Why
what the model is reading- 5-on-5 playSharks +0.24 goals a game
- Home iceSharks +0.24 goals a game
- GoaltendingSharks +0.19 goals a game
Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status
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Market snapshot moneyline, puck line, total
| Moneyline | Open | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Canucks | +164 | +160 |
| Sharks | −198 | −192 |
| Puck line and total | Price |
|---|---|
| Sharks −1.5 | +130 |
| Canucks +1.5 | −155 |
| Over 6.5 | −135 |
| Under 6.5 | +114 |
De-vigged, the moneyline gives Sharks a 63.1% chance. DraftKings, through ESPN.
Atlas's numbers the whole score grid
| Outcome | Atlas |
|---|---|
| Sharks in regulation | 51.0% |
| Level after sixty minutes | 20.4% |
| Canucks in regulation | 28.6% |
| Sharks by two or more | 41.3% |
| Canucks by two or more | 21.6% |
| Goals in the game | Atlas |
|---|---|
| More than 4.5 | 81.9% |
| More than 5.5 | 61.4% |
| More than 6.5 | 50.8% |
| More than 7.5 | 30.5% |
Expected goals: Sharks 3.66, Canucks 2.89, overtime's goal included. The likeliest finals: Sharks 3–2 (6%), Sharks 4–3 (6%), Sharks 4–1 (5%).
Goalies the expected starters
| Team | Goalie | Chance he starts | Goals saved a game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canucks | Leevi Merilainen | 54% | -0.18 |
| Canucks | Kevin Lankinen | 42% | -0.34 |
| Canucks | Nikita Tolopilo | 4% | -0.09 |
| Sharks | Yaroslav Askarov | 56% | -0.09 |
| Sharks | Alex Nedeljkovic | 44% | +0.00 |
| Sharks | Laurent Brossoit | 0% | +0.02 |
Atlas prices the expected starter: each goalie by his share of recent starts, marked down after a start the night before. Goals saved are above expected, a game at the league's shot volume, shrunk hard: a season of starts is still mostly noise.
What the model reads each team, against the league
| Per 60 minutes, against the league | Canucks | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 offence | -0.43 | -0.24 |
| 5-on-5 defence | -0.23 | -0.11 |
| Power play | -0.35 | -0.56 |
| Penalty kill | -0.55 | -0.84 |
| Finishing | +0.03 | +0.03 |
Expected goals for and against at 5-on-5 and on special teams, and goals scored over expected, each carried across seasons and updated after every game.
Reliability the model's own record
| Points of win probability from the market | Games | Atlas claimed | Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 2,276 | 50.5% | 48.7% |
| 1-2 | 2,132 | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| 2-4 | 3,466 | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| 4-6 | 2,121 | 54.2% | 52.6% |
| 6-8 | 1,103 | 55.0% | 50.2% |
| 8-10 | 443 | 56.5% | 51.2% |
| 10+ | 318 | 58.1% | 48.4% |
| All cards | 11,859 | 52.7% | 50.9% |
The NHL model walked forward over every season since 2013-14 it never saw, against the closing moneyline: how often the side Atlas rated above the market won.