No moneyline is posted yet.
Projected score Penguins 3.2, Golden Knights 3.0 · the likeliest final Penguins 3, Golden Knights 2 (7%).
No moneyline is posted yet, so there is nothing to grade Atlas's number against.
A grade is how much weight a card's information deserves — not a recommendation.
Why
what the model is reading- Home icePenguins +0.24 goals a game
- Special teamsGolden Knights +0.13 goals a game
- 5-on-5 playGolden Knights +0.10 goals a game
- RestGolden Knights on the second night of a back-to-back
Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status
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Atlas's numbers the whole score grid
| Outcome | Atlas |
|---|---|
| Penguins in regulation | 41.8% |
| Level after sixty minutes | 21.9% |
| Golden Knights in regulation | 36.3% |
| Penguins by two or more | 32.5% |
| Golden Knights by two or more | 28.1% |
| Goals in the game | Atlas |
|---|---|
| More than 4.5 | 78.0% |
| More than 5.5 | 55.5% |
| More than 6.5 | 44.9% |
| More than 7.5 | 25.2% |
Expected goals: Penguins 3.18, Golden Knights 3.01, overtime's goal included. The likeliest finals: Penguins 3–2 (7%), Penguins 2–3 (6%), Penguins 4–3 (5%).
Goalies the expected starters
| Team | Goalie | Chance he starts | Goals saved a game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Knights | Carter Hart | 55% | -0.05 |
| Golden Knights | Adin Hill | 45% | -0.16 |
| Golden Knights | Akira Schmid | 0% | -0.03 |
| Penguins | Arturs Silovs | 68% | -0.10 |
| Penguins | Sergei Murashov | 26% | -0.07 |
| Penguins | Stuart Skinner | 6% | +0.07 |
Atlas prices the expected starter: each goalie by his share of recent starts, marked down after a start the night before. Goals saved are above expected, a game at the league's shot volume, shrunk hard: a season of starts is still mostly noise.
What the model reads each team, against the league
| Per 60 minutes, against the league | Golden Knights | Penguins |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 offence | -0.03 | +0.12 |
| 5-on-5 defence | +0.39 | +0.13 |
| Power play | +0.77 | -0.15 |
| Penalty kill | +0.63 | +0.29 |
| Finishing | +0.03 | +0.04 |
Expected goals for and against at 5-on-5 and on special teams, and goals scored over expected, each carried across seasons and updated after every game.
Reliability the model's own record
| Points of win probability from the market | Games | Atlas claimed | Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 2,276 | 50.5% | 48.7% |
| 1-2 | 2,132 | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| 2-4 | 3,466 | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| 4-6 | 2,121 | 54.2% | 52.6% |
| 6-8 | 1,103 | 55.0% | 50.2% |
| 8-10 | 443 | 56.5% | 51.2% |
| 10+ | 318 | 58.1% | 48.4% |
| All cards | 11,859 | 52.7% | 50.9% |
The NHL model walked forward over every season since 2013-14 it never saw, against the closing moneyline: how often the side Atlas rated above the market won.