The market, its margin taken out: Predators 50%, Capitals 50%.
Projected score Predators 3.2, Capitals 3.1 · the likeliest final Predators 3, Capitals 2 (7%).
Atlas and the market are closely aligned, 1.6 points of win probability apart.
Across ten seasons, cards this close to the market claimed 51% accuracy and delivered 51%.
How much weight this card's information deserves — not a recommendation.
Why
what the model is reading- Home icePredators +0.24 goals a game
- 5-on-5 playCapitals +0.24 goals a game
- Special teamsPredators +0.10 goals a game
- RestCapitals on the second night of a back-to-back
Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status
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Market snapshot moneyline, puck line, total
| Moneyline | Open | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Capitals | −112 | −112 |
| Predators | −108 | −108 |
| Puck line and total | Price |
|---|---|
| Predators −1.5 | +220 |
| Capitals +1.5 | −270 |
| Over 6.5 | +100 |
| Under 6.5 | −120 |
De-vigged, the moneyline gives Predators a 49.6% chance. DraftKings, through ESPN.
Atlas's numbers the whole score grid
| Outcome | Atlas |
|---|---|
| Predators in regulation | 40.0% |
| Level after sixty minutes | 21.8% |
| Capitals in regulation | 38.2% |
| Predators by two or more | 30.9% |
| Capitals by two or more | 29.9% |
| Goals in the game | Atlas |
|---|---|
| More than 4.5 | 78.9% |
| More than 5.5 | 56.8% |
| More than 6.5 | 46.1% |
| More than 7.5 | 26.2% |
Expected goals: Predators 3.15, Capitals 3.11, overtime's goal included. The likeliest finals: Predators 3–2 (7%), Predators 2–3 (6%), Predators 4–3 (5%).
Goalies the expected starters
| Team | Goalie | Chance he starts | Goals saved a game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capitals | Charlie Lindgren | 53% | -0.08 |
| Capitals | Logan Thompson | 44% | +0.29 |
| Capitals | Clay Stevenson | 4% | +0.00 |
| Predators | Juuse Saros | 68% | -0.05 |
| Predators | Justus Annunen | 26% | +0.09 |
| Predators | Matt Murray | 6% | +0.02 |
Atlas prices the expected starter: each goalie by his share of recent starts, marked down after a start the night before. Goals saved are above expected, a game at the league's shot volume, shrunk hard: a season of starts is still mostly noise.
What the model reads each team, against the league
| Per 60 minutes, against the league | Capitals | Predators |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 offence | +0.04 | -0.18 |
| 5-on-5 defence | -0.06 | -0.14 |
| Power play | -0.02 | -0.07 |
| Penalty kill | -0.41 | +0.63 |
| Finishing | -0.01 | -0.03 |
Expected goals for and against at 5-on-5 and on special teams, and goals scored over expected, each carried across seasons and updated after every game.
Reliability the model's own record
| Points of win probability from the market | Games | Atlas claimed | Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 2,276 | 50.5% | 48.7% |
| 1-2 | 2,132 | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| 2-4 | 3,466 | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| 4-6 | 2,121 | 54.2% | 52.6% |
| 6-8 | 1,103 | 55.0% | 50.2% |
| 8-10 | 443 | 56.5% | 51.2% |
| 10+ | 318 | 58.1% | 48.4% |
| All cards | 11,859 | 52.7% | 50.9% |
The NHL model walked forward over every season since 2013-14 it never saw, against the closing moneyline: how often the side Atlas rated above the market won.