The market, its margin taken out: Lightning 68%, Jets 32%.
Projected score Lightning 3.6, Jets 2.5 · the likeliest final Lightning 3, Jets 2 (7%).
Atlas and the market land on the same number, 0.6 points of win probability apart.
Agreement is where this model is most reliable, and where it is adding least — a top grade means trust the number, not that this is the card to read first.
How much weight this card's information deserves — not a recommendation.
Why
what the model is reading- 5-on-5 playLightning +0.38 goals a game
- Home iceLightning +0.24 goals a game
- Special teamsLightning +0.09 goals a game
Projection built Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETMarket updated Oct 29, 2026 4:14 AM ETData status
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Market snapshot moneyline, puck line, total
| Moneyline | Open | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Jets | +195 | +200 |
| Lightning | −238 | −245 |
| Puck line and total | Price |
|---|---|
| Lightning −1.5 | +110 |
| Jets +1.5 | −130 |
| Over 6.5 | +120 |
| Under 6.5 | −142 |
De-vigged, the moneyline gives Lightning a 68.1% chance. DraftKings, through ESPN.
Atlas's numbers the whole score grid
| Outcome | Atlas |
|---|---|
| Lightning in regulation | 55.9% |
| Level after sixty minutes | 20.4% |
| Jets in regulation | 23.7% |
| Lightning by two or more | 45.7% |
| Jets by two or more | 17.3% |
| Goals in the game | Atlas |
|---|---|
| More than 4.5 | 76.3% |
| More than 5.5 | 53.6% |
| More than 6.5 | 42.5% |
| More than 7.5 | 23.5% |
Expected goals: Lightning 3.58, Jets 2.49, overtime's goal included. The likeliest finals: Lightning 3–2 (7%), Lightning 4–1 (6%), Lightning 4–3 (6%).
Goalies the expected starters
| Team | Goalie | Chance he starts | Goals saved a game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | Stuart Skinner | 57% | +0.07 |
| Jets | Clay Stevenson | 31% | +0.00 |
| Jets | Connor Hellebuyck | 9% | +0.02 |
| Lightning | Andrei Vasilevskiy | 70% | +0.14 |
| Lightning | Dennis Hildeby | 29% | +0.08 |
| Lightning | Jonas Johansson | 1% | -0.14 |
Atlas prices the expected starter: each goalie by his share of recent starts, marked down after a start the night before. Goals saved are above expected, a game at the league's shot volume, shrunk hard: a season of starts is still mostly noise.
What the model reads each team, against the league
| Per 60 minutes, against the league | Jets | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 offence | -0.20 | +0.09 |
| 5-on-5 defence | +0.05 | +0.24 |
| Power play | -0.21 | +0.10 |
| Penalty kill | -0.22 | +0.36 |
| Finishing | -0.04 | +0.04 |
Expected goals for and against at 5-on-5 and on special teams, and goals scored over expected, each carried across seasons and updated after every game.
Reliability the model's own record
| Points of win probability from the market | Games | Atlas claimed | Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 2,276 | 50.5% | 48.7% |
| 1-2 | 2,132 | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| 2-4 | 3,466 | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| 4-6 | 2,121 | 54.2% | 52.6% |
| 6-8 | 1,103 | 55.0% | 50.2% |
| 8-10 | 443 | 56.5% | 51.2% |
| 10+ | 318 | 58.1% | 48.4% |
| All cards | 11,859 | 52.7% | 50.9% |
The NHL model walked forward over every season since 2013-14 it never saw, against the closing moneyline: how often the side Atlas rated above the market won.